The decline and the effect on the government stake
Intel closed one of the worst sessions in its history: according to TechCrunch, on Friday the stock fell about 28% after the company reported fourth-quarter forecasts below market expectations. The move reduced the value of the stake held by the U.S. government by $12 billion, the outlet reports, citing CNBC.
The transaction dates back more than a year, when the Trump administration had the government buy a 10% stake in the company. Despite the slump, according to TechCrunch the public investment remains in profit, as does Nvidia's, which also acquired a significant stake in 2025: Intel stock is up more than 70% year to date, though it remains far from the elevated levels reached during the summer. The decline also affected Nvidia, which posted a modest drop on the same day, and more broadly much of the technology sector and semiconductor manufacturers.
The causes: expected results and PC prices
At the root of the sell-off is the guidance provided by the company. Intel warned that it expects fourth-quarter revenue of between $15 billion and $16 billion, while analysts expected about $17 billion. It also signaled a gross profit margin declining from 43% to 37% and expected non-positive cash flow due to the high level of investment.
The main problem cited by the company concerns PC sales, hit by AI industry demand that absorbs memory and other components, driving up their prices. CEO Lip-Bu Tan explained during the conference call that customers had begun to report a slowdown in the PC market precisely because of memory prices and availability, adding that end-system prices have risen significantly since the start of the year, putting further pressure on already constrained IT budgets.
Data center growth and capacity constraints
One positive element emerges from the data center business, whose revenue grew 78% compared with the same quarter a year earlier. This expansion, however, remains limited until Intel can increase capacity at its factories and attract more external customers, in competition with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.
According to the report, one of the new facilities in Arizona is operational, but the next is not expected to come online before 2028. It therefore remains to be seen how and when the increase in production capacity can translate into additional revenue and whether pressure on component prices will continue to weigh on the PC market. Finally, the figure for the value of the public stake is attributed to the source and has not been independently verified.
