Gartner's forecast
According to a forecast by research firm Gartner, between 2025 and 2030 artificial intelligence will create 10.6 million new jobs worldwide and eliminate 8.9 million. The net balance, IT之家 reports, would be positive at about 1.7 million positions by the end of the period. The positions estimated to be lost would represent less than 2% of the total workforce.
The phases of adoption and the impact on tasks
John Lovelock, vice president and head of research at Gartner, told Business Insider that companies go through different phases: in the first they suspend hiring while waiting to understand AI's effects; in a later phase they cut staff; while in the last they resume hiring, producing the positive net balance. According to Gartner, more than 20% of the world's workers, about 435.5 million people, will have to adapt to the changes introduced by AI, both in their tasks and in how they are performed.
Lovelock illustrated the change as follows: if today ten tasks are needed to complete a job, tomorrow six might suffice, performed differently. Nicole Bachaud, an economist at ZipRecruiter, said that AI is accentuating job instability in the U.S. technology sector and is changing the requirements companies ask for, as they tend to prefer candidates with experience using AI or strong cross-functional skills. Bachaud expects increased turnover in professional and business services, finance and information.
The cuts already announced and the critical voices
Challenger, Gray & Christmas, a firm that provides training for career transitions, calculated that through October U.S. companies had announced more than 100,000 AI-related cuts. AI would be the second most cited cause of layoffs by companies, after market conditions and the economy. Not everyone shares the enthusiasm, however: Cristina Estupiñán, a former developer who was laid off, said she felt forced to invent arguments about the supposed advantages of AI during interviews, while Shawn Mrzena, after more than twenty years at Microsoft, accepted the company's voluntary retirement plan also to avoid having to keep up with the pace imposed by the new technology.
Contrasting forecasts and global fears
Jan Hatzius, chief economist and head of global research at Goldman Sachs, said that next year unemployment could remain low, but that over the next one or two years more aggressive AI adoption could put upward pressure on the unemployment rate, a phenomenon he considers temporary and not a jobs catastrophe. Lovelock observed that the impact will vary by sector: the public sector could reduce staff to take advantage of efficiency gains, while in services increased productivity could make hiring more advantageous.
A Pew Research Center survey conducted in 37 countries and territories finds that in Australia and South Korea 76% of respondents believe AI will reduce jobs over the next twenty years, the highest share; in Nigeria and the Philippines the percentage falls to 26%. The report also notes that in several countries, both high-income ones such as Canada, France, Singapore and Sweden and middle-income ones such as India, Indonesia and Malaysia, young people aged 18 to 34 say they are more concerned than those over 50.
