The estimate and the potential overtaking
Samsung Electronics may have overtaken SK hynix in third-quarter revenue tied to high-bandwidth memory (HBM), according to an estimate by U.S. equity research firm Bernstein, as reported by The Korea Herald. Bernstein calculates Samsung's HBM revenue at $8.7 billion in the July-September period, up 33% from the previous quarter, versus $7.6 billion for SK hynix, which grew 11%. The estimated lead would therefore be about $1.1 billion.
If confirmed, the figure would call into question the leadership that SK hynix has long held in the memory market for artificial intelligence. Samsung, the newspaper recalls, had struggled for more than a year to keep pace with its rival in supplying advanced memory chips for AI accelerators, including those developed by Nvidia.
The market share picture
The market-share breakdown provided by Counterpoint Research, cited in the article, shows a clear progression. In the second quarter of 2025, SK hynix held 64% of global HBM revenue, more than four times Samsung's 15%. A year later, SK hynix's share would have fallen to 50% and Samsung's risen to 33%, reducing the gap from 49 to 17 percentage points.
Bernstein's estimate is not based on the two companies' financial statements, but on a regression analysis of semiconductor exports from the major South Korean regions where both operate production facilities. The analysis finds that in September overall HBM exports rose 45% month on month and 131% year on year, a sign of growing demand for memory intended for AI.
Prices, product generations and verification
Bernstein also examined export value per unit of weight, used as an approximate indicator of price and product mix. In September, Samsung's value was more than double the previous level and about four times that of SK hynix, which would suggest a larger share of high-value products. The newspaper notes, however, that this indicator does not directly establish selling prices or technological superiority.
On the product front, Samsung began commercial shipments of HBM4, the most recent generation, in February, while SK hynix began large-scale shipments in the second quarter. Both are competing to supply Nvidia's Vera Rubin AI platform. According to Counterpoint, HBM3E still accounted for most global HBM revenue in the second quarter; the pace of HBM4 production expansion and customer deliveries will likely be central to the upcoming earnings conference calls.
SK hynix will report third-quarter data on Wednesday, followed by Samsung on Thursday. Both are expected to post record profits, supported by strong demand for AI memory and rising prices for conventional DRAM. Samsung has already indicated an expected operating profit of 107.4 trillion won ($81.2 billion), while analysts polled by FnGuide estimate about 77 trillion won for SK hynix. Hana Securities estimated on Monday that SK hynix's average DRAM selling price rose 21% from the previous quarter, potentially pushing results above market expectations. It therefore remains to be verified, with official data forthcoming, whether Bernstein's estimate of an overtaking in HBM revenue will be confirmed.
