The report's estimates
Southeast Asia's digital economy is projected to reach $368 billion in gross merchandise value in 2026, growing 17% year over year. That is the projection in the eleventh edition of the annual e-Conomy SEA report, produced by Google, Temasek and Bain & Company and cited in a post on Google's corporate blog. The authors indicate that the one-trillion-dollar milestone is expected to be surpassed by 2035.
According to the research, the spread of generative AI is the main driver of this trajectory. The document estimates that 243 million people in the region—58% of the working-age population—already use generative AI as part of daily life, with an adoption rate four times faster than the spread of mobile internet. The report also introduces tokens as a new unit of measurement for the AI economy and forecasts a sixtyfold increase in regional AI use over the next five years, supported by growing confidence in so-called agentic commerce.
The sectors involved
E-commerce remains the pillar of the transformation, with $226 billion in gross merchandise value and 18% annual growth. According to the report, shoppers use in-app assistants and multimodal search modes to navigate complex purchases: these personalized experiences are said to deliver conversion rates more than 10% higher and increases in order volumes of up to 75%.
In online travel, valued at $59 billion with 10% growth, traditional search engines remain the most-used tool for planning trips, while generative AI is said to have overtaken social media as the second option for organizing complex itineraries. Online media is worth $44 billion in revenue, up 22%, with engagement quality improving by 10% to 20% and a commerce media market estimated at $4 billion. Mobility and food delivery reach $40 billion in gross merchandise value, up 15%, thanks to predictive suggestions and optimized routes. Digital financial services stand at $1.65 trillion in gross transaction value, up 16%, supported by real-time fraud detection and personalized recommendations.
Trust, conditions and limits
The report finds an already established familiarity with digital automation: 72% of users use everyday functions such as price monitoring, and 75% say they are willing to let AI agents compare prices and complete transactions autonomously. 62% of respondents say they trust AI tools more today than a year ago, based on positive experiences, greater familiarity and accuracy of results. To accept new features, users ask for guarantees on privacy, transparency about AI's limitations and the ability to cancel transactions carried out by agents.
To support the expected increase in AI use, the authors identify four conditions necessary for the region's digital ecosystem, including expanding data center infrastructure, improving energy efficiency and adopting unified digital trade policies. The report covers ten countries, namely Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, Brunei, Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar, while Timor-Leste is excluded due to limited data availability and quality. The figures cited are projections by the report's authors and not final data; the trust percentages come from a survey conducted as part of the same research.
